Posted by Robert Cooper on Oct 14 2013

Australia is set for a “near-average” cyclone season this year, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s annual forecast.

Neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean prevailed from July to last month and are expected to continue through summer, leading to a 57% chance of above-average tropical cyclone activity, the bureau says.

“There is currently nothing in the broad climate drivers to suggest anything but a typical tropical cyclone season for Australia and the sub regions.”

A typical season runs from November 1 to April 30 and averages about 11 cyclones, with some likely to cross the coast.

In the eastern region, including the Queensland coast, there is a 53% chance of an above-average cyclone season, according to the bureau. The northern region, including Darwin, has a 52% chance.

The neutral state of the tropical Pacific Ocean reflects the absence of either El Nino or La Nina conditions.